Partial drought may trigger 12MT decline in rice output

India’s summer-sown rice output could dip by up to 12 million tonnes (MT) due to a partial drought but the country will still have a surplus of the staple, a senior official said on Friday, a day after the government curbed exports to put a lid on rising cereal prices.

Union food secretary Sudhanshu Pandey, citing official projections, said paddy output will go down in four states with deficient rainfall, but in others, where the monsoon was robust, yields will likely go up. On balance, the country will be in a surplus based on previous reserves, the total area sown and expected yields, he said.

The Centre is sitting on a stock of 47MT of rice, including rice equivalent of unmilled paddy, as of July 1. The buffer stock requirement is to have 13.5 MT of rice as of July 1.

Pandey pointed out that the paddy acreage is lower by 38 lakh (3.8 million) hectare so far this kharif season because of low rainfall in many states.The kharif season contributes about 80 % of India’s total rice production. “Loss of production of rice may be 10 million tonnes and in the worst case, it can be 12 million tonnes this year,” he told reporters. According to the presentation made by Pandey, paddy sowing is lower by 25 lakh (2.5 million) hectares in four states — West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar.

The production could be less by 7-8MT in these four states.

Pandey declined to comment on whether the government would be in a position to continue with the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana, a free foodgrain programme introduced as a Covid-relief measure, beyond September.

The country has witnessed six straight years of bumper harvests, helping expand state-held food stocks and export. Amid the pandemic, the farm economy held steady because of ample production.

But extreme weather this year exposed the fragility of the country’s agricultural system to climate risks. In May, the government halted wheat export after a severe heatwave crimped output, sending state-owned reserves to a 14-year low.

On Thursday, the Union government imposed a 20% export duty on common varieties of rice. The same day, it also suspended overseas sales of broken rice, used as poultry and cattle feed, apart from ethanol blending. Broken rice stocks are almost exhausted due to a jump in international shipments.

Wholesale inflation in rice rose 8.22% from a year ago, official data showed, while retail rates leapt 6.30% on a per kilo basis year-on. Maize price have jumped 26% between January and September 2022, the data showed. These will feed into overall food inflation, the reason why the government curbed overseas sales.

“At the moment this is the first estimate. If the yield is good in some areas, this can be compensated also,” Pandey said.

“There could be a 10-15% deficit in rice production. A large rice quantity has been exported… Therefore, prices have risen above MSP,” said Rahul Chauhan of IGrain Pvt Ltd.

(With PTI inputs)